1. It was a sad day, that morning at the United Nations, when the ASEAN Foreign Ministers confronted the Myanmar Foreign Minister over the brutal crackdown of demonstrators in Yangon. We had just received reports of automatic weapons being used. The Thai Foreign Minister said to me with great sadness that the killing of Buddhist monks was particularly opprobrius.
2. ASEAN issued a strong statement expressing our horror and our anger. We had been reluctant to do so because Myanmar is a member of the ASEAN family. For some time now, we had stopped trying to defend Myanmar internationally because it became no longer credible. But we refrained from publicly castigating its government. This time, we had no choice. The honour of the family was at stake and the people of Myanmar would not forgive us if we kept silent.
3. When Western countries cheered us for speaking out, it worried us. Strident calls to bring down the regime showed a lack of understanding of the problem. It cannot be assumed that out of the ashes, a new resplendent Myanmar will automatically rise. That the old way persisted in by the military government since 1988 cannot work is clear. But the way forward is not so clear.
4. Like in Indonesia, the Myanmar army played a major role in the founding of the state. It was Aung San Suu Kyi's father, Aung San, who founded that army. He remains a national icon and part of his prestige has passed on to his daughter. Ironically, the institution which her father established became her tormentor.
5. This emotional entanglement is part of the complexity in the Myanmar situation today. After he stepped down, the old leader Ne Win, often suspected of being still a power behind the scenes, would occasionally visit Singapore for medical treatment. Sometimes, he would meet former Prime Ministers Lee Kuan Yew and Goh Chok Tong. Whenever they discussed Aung San Suu Kyi, Ne Win always referred to her as 'my leader's daughter', never in a pejorative way, despite her being an implacable opponent of the military government'€™s policies. The military leaders know she retains a certain moral authority because of her father and her landslide victory in the 1990 elections. They have to accord her a certain respect. She in turn knows that national reconciliation must involve the military.
6. Achieving national conciliation will not be easy. The military government has been trying to marginalise her and the National League for Democracy without success. The recent demonstrations, especially the large scale involvement of Buddhist monks, have strengthened her hand. Attempts by the government to intimidate the population can only succeed in the short term. However, if either side takes brinksmanship too far, the result will be a great tragedy for the people of Myanmar.
7. The role of United Nations Special Envoy Ibrahim Gambari is crucial. A gifted Nigerian diplomat, he has somehow managed to earn the trust of both sides. That the military leaders allowed him access to Aung San Suu Kyi on two occasions in the past was a sign that they wanted to negotiate, albeit on their terms. That she asked him to continue playing that role showed that she too is prepared to negotiate provided the military leaders are serious. The negotiation will be tough and protracted but it is our best hope for the country. If Gambari fails, the future will be bleak. There are some observers who believe that the issue must be forced now. That point may yet come but we should give peaceful negotiation our best shot. If the Chileans had tried to force the issue with Pinochet, their transition to democracy would have been bathed in blood.
8. The alternative cannot but be violent. Many ethnic groups in Myanmar resent majority Burman rule. While their peace agreement with the Yangon government still holds, a number of these groups are still armed and can easily return to insurgency. The border regions remain largely unpacified. The fact is that without the army playing a major role in any future solution, Myanmar cannot hold together. Historian Thant Myint-U, the grandson of the third UN Secretary General U Thant and no apologist of the regime, warned recently that sudden change in Myanmar can lead to Iraq-type anarchy. It is precisely to win over the minorities that the military government changed the country's name from Burma to Myanmar some years ago. It is however a change that western countries refused to accept in order not to confer legitimacy on the government.
9. Myanmar is a buffer state between China and India. If the country dissolves into civil war, both these giant neighbours will be dragged in willynilly. For this reason, keeping Myanmar in the ASEAN family is in everyone'۪s best interest including the West̢۪s. When Gambari was dispatched by the UN Secretary General to Myanmar last week with the full authority of the Security Council, we in ASEAN gave him our full support. He is our best bet and the only game in town. China played a helpful role in helping secure the meetings he had. Japan has decided to cut aid but is keeping close to the ASEAN position. The US and Europe are stepping up sanctions against Myanmar. Skilfully done, concerted international action can strengthen Gambari's hand and help bring about a happy outcome.
By George Yeo
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